Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Buy Gold on dips to USD 1560; target USD 1577

After witnessing a volatile trading throughout the previous week, spot gold held steady near USD 1578 an ounce. Prices slipped to a ten month low of USD 1539.74 earlier last week, weighed down by a strong US dollar and upbeat equities that abated gold’s safe haven appeal amid concerns over the Korean peninsula. Disappointing US Non-farm Payrolls data on Friday raised expectations that the US Federal Reserve will continue the bullion friendly bond buying program that lifted prices nearly 2 percent. US employers hired at a weaker pace in nine months in March with payrolls expanding by just 88,000 last month against expectations of a 200,000 increase whereas the unemployment rate lowered to 7.6 percent. Gold in Japanese futures market surged almost 5 percent nearing its record high due to a weak yen. Japanese yen slipped against the dollar to the weakest since June 2009 on reports of more stimulus actions from the BOJ.

Investment interest on gold seems contracting with the holdings of the world’s top exchange traded funds continuing to fall, testing the lowest level since August 2012. A direct rise from the support of USD 1539 has overshadowed further bear attempts lifting prices to the congestion resistance of USD 1581-85 regions. As per chart formations, if unable to break USD 1585, prices have more room for further downside but it has to break USD 1537 with stiff volume. Anyhow, fall below the same, next sizable move is expected towards USD 1520, breaking of which is mandatory for long liquidation to USD 1480/48 levels. However, while prices stay above USD 1559, further rise towards USD 1585 is expected but possibilities of strong uptrend are vested with the ability to trade consistently above USD 1588 with volume. USD 1607/1618 is the upside objective once such attempts are successful. On a very short, breaking any of the sides of USD 1539-1588 would be required for further directional moves. MACD is providing potential for further rise but RSI is placed in the neutral zone.

Trading strategies:

Key levels for the day: Downside: Immediate 1537/1520/1480 followed by 1448.

Upside Immediate: 1585-1588/1600/1607/1618/ then1660

Buy above 1588 target 1600 SL below 1578. Buy on dips to 1560 target 1577 SL below1547

Buy above 1609 target 1620 SL below 1598.

Sell on pullbacks to 1585 target 1565 SL above 1596

Sell below 1537 target 1520 SL 1553. Sell below 1518 target 1480 SL above 1554

Expect a choppy trading initially, but breaking any of the key levels of 1539-1588 regions would be required suggesting fresh directional moves.

MCX May: Intraday Levels are: Resistance seen at: 9530/29640/29880/29940
Supports: 29350/29110/28810/28700/28510/28320
( http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-commodities/buy-golddips-to-usd-1560-target-usd-1577-geojit_848906.html)

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